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Betastic / Kentucky Derby Prediction

Kentucky Derby Picks and Odds for 2023: Predictions & Expectations

The Kentucky Derby has been running since 1875 and it is well known for being ‘the most exciting two minutes in sports’. This year will see ‘The Run For The Roses’ moving to September from its usual May date due to the Covid-19 pandemic. While there won’t be any spectators, it promises to be the pinnacle of the US horse racing season and all punters will be preparing their Kentucky Derby predictions.

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The race takes place at midnight UK-time on Sunday September 6th. So who looks most likely to win this Triple Crown race at the legendary Churchill Downs racecourse? Read our 2020 Kentucky Derby betting tips to find out.

The Favourites For 2023

Tiz the Law

Any prediction for Kentucky Derby betting will be all about who can beat Tiz the Law. This Barclay Tagg-trained champion is the shortest Kentucky Derby favourite since 1992. Tiz the Law is in exceptional form having already won the Travers Stakes and the Belmont Stakes this season. However, it’s worth noting that the racehorse’s only career defeat came last year at Churchill Downs. But ultimately, this race is Tiz the Law’s the lose, so be sure to factor this into your Kentucky Derby predictions.

Honor A.P.

Honor A.P. is probably the only runner in with a real shot of beating Tiz the Law, and the horse features in many Kentucky Derby tips. The three-year old put in an impressive performance to win the Santa Anita Derby which is a good form guide for the Kentucky Derby. However, the son of Honor Code looked a little shakier with a mediocre performance at the following Shared Belief Stakes. But with plenty of speed and the combined talents of trainer John Shirreffs and jockey Mike Smith, it could be Honor A.P’s year.


Any tips for Kentucky Derby betting would have Authentic as an option for an each-way bet. The Bob Baffert colt has won four out of his last five races and is showing a huge amount of promise. There remain a few questions about consistency, and it remains to be seen how Authentic will last over distances. Plus the racehorse already has a disadvantage in being drawn in stall 18. But if you’re looking for an outsider to win with your Kentucky Derby predictions, then Authentic could be a good choice.

Tiz the Law vs Honor A.P. – Who was ahead last time?

The battle between Tiz the Law and Honor A.P. will be all the more interesting as this is the first time that these racehorses have appeared on the same racecard. Tiz the Law has won all but one of his last seven races. This defeat was at Churchill Downs last November. It should be noted that this upset was in bad weather, while the forecast is good for the weekend, so be sure to factor this into your Kentucky Derby betting tips. Honor A.P. has two wins out of his last five appearances, but three of these defeats saw the racehorse coming second. All of which means that making a prediction for Kentucky Derby betting will be all the more difficult.

Statistical Highlights


Our betting tip for today

Ordinarily we’d predict that Tiz the Law will be the out and out winner of the 2020 Kentucky Derby. But we have already seen that this year is full of surprises. So our Kentucky Derby prediction will be that Honor A.P. will get the result when raceday comes around.

While Tiz the Law is justifiably the favourite, such is the heritage of Honor A.P. that we can see a big upset happening. Don’t forget that this racehorse is trained by John Shirreffs who was behind the legendary Zenyatta. Shirreffs has been pretty vocal in how ‘fresh and happy’ Honor A.P. looks, plus the three year old has already shown to enjoy the track at Churchill Downs.

Other contenders include the likes of Max Player and the aforementioned Authentic. But ultimately, it’s all going to be about the battle between Tiz the Law and Honor A.P. You’re not going to get long odds for Tiz the Law, so you may as well try your luck with Honor A.P. to get the surprise win.

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